last updated 18th November 05
By 4ecotips

WTO report forecasts 4% growth

Higher oil prices have so far had limited effect on international tourism growth according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (WTO).

A recently concluded WTO report demonstrates that up to the moment, the impact of high oil prices in international tourism has been little. Experts consulted in the framework of this research project note that only a small percentage of the increase in oil prices as been passed onto consumers in terms of final purchase price, says WTO Chief of Market Intelligence, Augusto HuŽscar.

In addition, the imposition of surcharges by many airlines does not appear to have discouraged demand for air transport - at least for the time being. According to the latest data from IATA, passenger traffic from January through September 2005, increased by 8.3%, with airlines in the Middle East and in Africa reporting double-digit growth rates.

Demand for international tourism has remained strong through 2005. WTO's estimates for the year, as published in the October issue of the WTO World Tourism Barometer, show that 2005 is expected to end with a growth of 5 to 6% in international tourist arrivals, which can be considered exceptional. International tourism is not only on track to consolidate the bumper year it had in 2004 (+10.7%), but it will also exceed the forecast long-term average growth of 4%.

The full WTO report on the impact of high oil prices in international tourism, due to be published next month, highlights moreover that, in recent crises higher oil prices had no direct impact on tourism. The effect was rather indirect, as price hikes contributed to the deterioration of the economic situation, and consequently to the corrosion of consumers' purchasing power. "But, while the past oil price peaks had a significant negative impact on tourism through to the economy at large, on this occasion the global economy has remained relatively steady and the inflationary pressure appears to be limited for now," say WTO Secretary-General, Mr Francesco Frangialli.

Hoever, barring other unforeseen shocks, WTO is confident that tourism will "continue to show healthy growth globally", albeit with changes in the strength of particular generating markets and destinations and perhaps a bigger push in intra-regional travel, says Mr. Frangialli.