last updated 15th December 05
by 4ecotips.com

CEPP director expresses pessimism

The Climate Group caught up with Dr. Jonathan Pershing, Director of the Climate, Energy and Pollution Programme at the World Resources Institute, at the COP11 meeting in Montreal. They asked him to share his views on key successes and challenges arising from the conference.

Dr Pershing says: "I personally subscribe to the most recent evidence in the scientific community. We need a 60-80% reduction in current emissions. Will we succeed - yes? Will we succeed before we have huge damages? At the moment I'm pessimistic that we'll get the whole way."

Asked about whether or not he thought there was a key role for the Kyoto process going forward he explains: "For me there is no question. The biggest outcome from this conference is that we have agreed to do Kyoto.

"The United States has been the most frustrating player at the meeting. But whatever happens with the narrow dialogue of the US, the fact that the market now has standing and that countries are moving it forward, is a big deal. So in my mind you don't walk back from that."

"Of course, the other question is, what does Kyoto do next? Kyoto's goal is to be a market centre. It's a mechanism through which actions you take can have international cost effectiveness options. But many of the countries in Kyoto also have domestic commitments - the UK, Germany and Japan, for example."

"Even countries that don't have a hard target are moving forward - China is making progress on transport: they've got an efficiency programme; a major gas initiative and; a huge renewables initiative. These actions are largely driven by the existence of the international process. From my perspective, that's incredibly significant. "

The agreement on next steps is going to be long and difficult. But there will be next steps, and they will be part and parcel of this international discussion.

Dr Pershing was also asked about how the long-term position of the US would affect progress? Like Jonathon Porritt, he thought the best indicator of US long term policy came from three different sources.

"The first is the US States. Look at what is happening in the local government processes of the 50 states. The most advanced is probably California with its automobile and renewable standards. And the Northeast states are now in the process of finalising an agreement on emissions trading. There are also some 20 odd states that have renewables obligations, more than 30 that require inventories, and more than 20 with climate plans. That's really quite big."

"The second thing is that congress is beginning to move. Earlier this year there was a resolution passed by the senate saying that the US has to be participating in these international processes. That's a big shift."

"The last thing is to think about what US companies are doing. Look at the big deal announcement coming out of GE earlier this year, which said that climate change is a priority and we're going to take steps to tackle it and be profitable in this constrained world."